So, the US presidential elections are a hot topic, no doubt.. It seems I couldn’t avoid them, thanks to my colleage at work, who streamed the debates, and news from the US elections, into the office, each and every day!! Thanks Greg :)  As much as I wanted nothing better than to ignore it, like anything, over time, it got the better of me, and I started to get interested..

Well, there’s not long to go, and as the debates and campaigns are coming to a close, with people already pre-voting in parts of the US, and voting queues taking hours at a time, you can tell that this clearly is an election like no other.. With the webosphere, blogosphere, and twittersphere alive with people actively watching and reporting on this election, the chances of there being a “fix” like there was in Bush vs. Clinton, is getting slimmer and slimmer.. let’s hope these elections represent people’s voting properly, and accurately.  Not that I believe in the democratic process leading to much, but heck, it’s got my interest, and so I’m going to blog about it, and share some of the “emergent” results, I’ve seen from the web 2.0 world of the internet so far.. It’ll be interesting to see how these metrics weigh up once the actual results come out.

Most of the inspiration to uncover these stats below came from reading The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki, a book that talks about how diverse groups, which represent some key criterion, of individual self interest and diversity, amongst other things, are capable of accurately predicting outcomes.

So with that in mind, lets see what the Web and the Internet have to say about the current US elections, and let’s see after the elections how the figures and ratios match up..

This all started when for some strange reason, I googled Obama, noticed the total number of entries listed, and thought, I wonder how many pages on the internet exist for McCain?

Well the results were interesting to say the least [just to contextualise, these facts were collected on the 1st of November, 2008, from 16:40 GMT]

Entries on Google.com (I initially used Google.co.uk, but found the US numbers to be a little higher, so possibly more accurate?):

Obama = about 202,000,000 results
McCain = about 144,000,000 results

From Google News:

Obama = 472,359 results
McCain = 425,271 results

From Google Blogs:

Obama = 13,610,226 results
McCain = 7,984,667 results

From Yahoo.com:

Obama = about 1,430,000,000
McCain = about 1,130,000,000

From Live.com:

Obama = 528,000 results
Barack = 894,000 results
McCain = 3,750,000 results
Mc Cain = 6,690,000 results

From Alexa.com, when comparing the traffic Ranking of barackobama.com and johnmccain.com (the official websites of each candidate), note that the smaller the number, the better:

barackobama.com = 753
johnmccain.com = 2,580

Then on TwitVote, a mock opinion poll for Election2008.

Obama = 4247 votes
McCain = 908 votes

(note, that since twitvote is available to the entire twitter community, this may not represent the views of the american people as accurately, this is also being updated in real time, by people in twitter, so the figures will have no doubt have changed dramatically by the time this is published).

Also, on 7-election.com, where voters can vote, based on their choice of cup, when ordering coffee, in 7-eleven’s across the US, we can see:

Obama = 60%
McCain = 40%

From the CNN Election Tracker Poll of Polls:

Obama = 50%
McCain = 43%

and also the CNN Electoral Map Calculator, where the crowd gets to predict the results:

Obama = 291
McCain = 160

Finally, Technorati.com, a blog aggregator predicts:

Obama = 675,621 results
McCain = 494,815 results

If you can find any other examples of crowdsourcing the election results before they happen, do add them to the comments below, and I’ll edit and update the page accordingly.  For now, it looks like Obama is clearly in the lead, across all the media, except, oddly enough, Live.com.. Perhaps that’s a reflection of either the information Live.com relies upon as being inaccurate, or the users there, being of a different demographic.  I’d hate to think there was any intentional fixing going on..

Please do share your thoughts, and insights, in the comments below.. Thanks!

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